The Washington Independent - U.S. news and politics - washingtonindependent.com: Stories by Matthew DeLong

McCain's New Strategy

Matthew DeLong — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 15:00:07 GMT

At a rally this evening in the New Orleans suburb of Kenner, La., the Associated Press is reporting that Sen. McCain will unveil a new campaign strategy that will seek to wrestle the mantle of change from the Obama campaign. According to the article, McCain will highlight his record of working with Democrats and his reputation as a government reformer, and will position himself as an agent of actual change in opposition to the lofty rhetoric of the Democratic front-runner:

The Republican nominee-in-waiting plans to draw contrasts with Obama on a range of issues and argue that the Democrat offers the wrong kind of change while he offers the right kind. An advertising campaign is expected to reinforce that message in the coming weeks.

Previewing his remarks, McCain told reporters on his campaign bus in Nashville, Tenn.: "The message is change. It's real change. I think it's clear I have a record of working across the aisle. Senator Obama does not. I think it's my record of reform and efforts to change the way we do business in Washington. He has the most liberal voting record of any senator in the U.S. Senate."

Of course, while this strategy is clearly designed to court independent voters, it will be interesting to see how it plays with conservatives. As my colleague Sridhar Pappu recently illustrated, McCain has had a hard time courting the conservative base of the Republican Party. By focusing on the elements of his reputation the base hates most, i.e. reaching out to Democrats and championing issues like campaign finance reform and embryonic stem cell research, McCain runs the risk of alienating conservatives further.

Perhaps most tellingly, even conservatives are predicting stormy seas ahead. As Jonah Goldberg opines in this morning's USA Today:

While Barack Obama is surprisingly weak given all of the Democrats' advantages, the smart money remains that the Democrats will capture the White House and expand their majorities in Congress considerably.

The issue climate is arguably even worse. From Social Security to health care to the environment, Democrats have the wind at their backs. If Obama continued to run from the left and won in November, Democrats would be able to claim the biggest mandate for liberalism since 1964.

Finally, amid widespread speculation that Obama may officially secure the Democratic nomination today, following the Democratic primaries in Montana and South Dakota, the senator from Illinois will also likely enjoy a bump in the polls. However, McCain can take some comfort in a Gallup poll released yesterday, which found Sen. Hillary Clinton is a slightly stronger candidate in a matchup with McCain, and the Obama-McCain matchup is a dead heat, with both candidates favored by 46 percent of respondents. With the campaign set to start in earnest, the next few weeks could prove the most interesting yet.

The Man Who Made McCain?

Matthew DeLong — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 17:50:00 GMT

In the current issue of Newsweek, a story titled "The Man Who Made McCain," details how the iconic liberal Arizona congressman and promoter of environmental stewardship, Mo Udall, served as a sort of mentor to Sen. John McCain when Mccain first came to Congress in 1983. As the article notes, Udall was known as "the liberal conscience of Congress, " but also for reaching across the aisle, often to the freshman representative, which made a lasting impression:

McCain has been an ardent proponent of the Iraq War, of course, and he has sided with the GOP in its opposition to abortion rights. But he has also crossed party lines on issues like campaign-finance reform—which Udall also championed—and global warming. In 2005, McCain was a key member of the Gang of 14, a group of Democrats and Republicans who worked together to prevent a shutdown of the Senate because of President George W. Bush's judicial nominees. To this day, some Republicans question his party loyalty for that.

However, while McCain may have learned a lesson in bipartisanship from Udall, what exactly did he take away from Udall about the elder congressman's signature issue, the environment? McCain has certainly been talking a good game on climate change, calling for mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions, but his actual record is a mixed bag. The League of Conservation Voters recently awarded the Arizona senator a score of zero percent (out of a possible 100) on his environmental record for 2007, because McCain missed every major vote on environmental issues last year. The group gives the senator a lifetime rating of 24 percent.

With the debate in the Senate on the ambitious Lieberman-Warner climate change bill continuing throughout the week, McCain has a chance to continue talking up his position on global warming. The New York Times notes that all three major presidential candidates have pledged to participate. From The Times:

The measure would reduce American production of climate-altering gases by nearly 70 percent from current levels by 2050. It would provide billions of dollars in subsidies for energy conservation and environmentally clean technologies, creating millions of jobs, proponents say.

The sale of the permits would raise more than $5 trillion for the government in the coming decades, money that the bill proposes to distribute to affected industries, consumers and local governments in one of the biggest programs of redistribution of American wealth in history. The bill’s proponents say the money would help pay for a technological leap that would create millions of new jobs while cleaning the atmosphere.

McCain teamed up with Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman in 2005 to introduce a similar, but weaker, bill. Still, it remains unlikely that any action on the Lieberman-Warner bill will be taken this year, if at all, due to strong opposition among some conservatives -- making it a safe bill for McCain to support.

Iraq's Back....Is That Good News for McCain?

Matthew DeLong — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 19:46:59 GMT

With most recent polls showing roughly two-thirds of Americans now oppose the war in Iraq, new data seems to show that the war is picking up steam as a campaign issue, after a months-long lull in news coverage. A report by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism finds that in the past week, two distinct narratives have emerged in campaign coverage:

Track one was the fiercely passionate endgame to the Democrats’ long and hard-fought nomination battle. The other was the developing general election campaign between John McCain and Barack Obama. And in that story line, the Iraq war began to move back onto center stage.

While the coverage of Iraq is way down from this time last year as an overall percentage of news stories -- from 19 percent to 3 percent -- according to the report, it accounted for 10 percent of campaign-related stories last week, up from less than one percent the week previous. Much of this new discussion focused on the dust-ups between Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama over the factuality of McCain's statements about current troop levels and McCain's challenge to Obama to visit Iraq.

With some relatively good news emerging from Iraq -- only 19 American deaths during the month of May, the lowest monthly total to date since the war began in 2003 -- this could prove beneficial for the McCain campaign, if things continue to quiet down in Iraq and if that translates into an increase in support for the war among the American public.

Operation Stolen Thunder

Matthew DeLong — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 02:18:13 GMT

On a wild "Will she?/Won't she?" day that seemed to belong to the Democrats, and more specifically to Barack Obama, whom the Associated Press reported had clinched the Democratic nomination on the basis of an undisclosed number of superdelegate endorsements, Sen. John McCain tried to remind everyone that he, too, is running for president. Speaking in the New Orleans suburb of Kenner, La., McCain sought to convince Americans that he would be a president who could deliver the change they seem to so desperately crave.

McCain began by praising Sen. Hillary Clinton and acknowledging what everyone was talking about, that Obama, if he hadn't already, would soon clinch the nomination.

Sen. Clinton has earned great respect for her tenacity and courage. The media often overlooked how compassionately she spoke to the concerns and dreams of millions of Americans, and she deserves a lot more appreciation than she sometimes received. As the father of three daughters, I owe her a debt for inspiring millions of women to believe there is no opportunity in this great country beyond their reach. I am proud to call her my friend. Pundits and party elders have declared that Sen. Obama will be my opponent.

The senator from Arizona went on to give an address that sought to turn Obama's theme, "Change We Can Believe In," against him. Flanked by a green background patterned with the slogan "A Leader We Can Believe In" McCain frequently revisited the phrase throughout the speech.

This is, indeed, a change election. No matter who wins this election, the direction of this country is going to change dramatically. But, the choice is between the right change and the wrong change; between going forward and going backward.

McCain laid out what appeared to be a rather sweeping litany of changes that would need to be made in the coming years.

The right kind of change will initiate widespread and innovative reforms in almost every area of government policy -- health care, energy, the environment, the tax code, our public schools, our transportation system, disaster relief, government spending and regulation, diplomacy, the military and intelligence services.

It will be interesting to see how far McCain runs with the message of change during this campaign. It's obviously focus-group approved, and many of the reforms he listed have long been in the sights of conservatives, such as tax reform, government spending and the military. Still, many of the changes McCain outlined will require a somewhat activist government, namely moving toward energy independence and taking action to combat climate change. It will be interesting to see how conservatives react to this strategy. Will it bring them in, or drive them away?

Hagel: 'We Should Engage & Negotiate With Iran'

Matthew DeLong — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 13:46:59 GMT

In an interview with the German weekly Der Spiegel, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), who's being mentioned as a potential Cabinet member in an Obama administration and, sometimes, even a potential VP, aligns himself neatly with the likely Democratic presidential nominee in the debate with Sen. John McCain over whether Washington should talk with Iran.

SPIEGEL: The question is: Should the U.S. go or should it stay (in Iraq)?

Hagel: We need to get out, but responsibly. Much depends on how we are going to engage Iran. That spills over into the peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. It spills over into Lebanon. It spills over into the relationship with Syria. We need a regional strategy, and in my view that means a permanent Middle East conference in which all Middle East nations participate. The longer we stay in Iraq, the more difficult it becomes to implement such a process. Many of the Arab nations don’t trust us.

SPIEGEL: You would bring back diplomacy? That was certainly not one of the strengths of President George W. Bush.

Hagel: That was a fundamental error. In the end it will be a diplomatic solution that will bring the Iraq war to an end. General David Petraeus has also said that.

SPIEGEL: John McCain clearly places much more emphasis on the military than you do. Are there any further differences?

Hagel: We must engage Iran and reach a point where we can begin to negotiate. I do not see an alternative. What has American involvement accomplished so far? The Middle East is as combustible and as complicated as it has ever been. Our policy has been disastrous. We now must apply all the instruments of power -- diplomatic power is part of that, as is trade and economic development. Certainly the military is a part of that and so is intelligence sharing. We have to build relationships and define common interests. Only then is stability and security possible.

SPIEGEL: You are, then, an advocate of America relying more on soft power than on the military?

Hagel: That's the way we will make progress. We have to use our economic and also our cultural strength. Trust is the crucial currency in international relations. We willfully diminished the value of this currency and we now have to rebuild it. Trust is more important than anything else. North Korea was a part of the Axis of Evil, but now the United States is using the instruments of diplomacy in the Six Party talks.

SPIEGEL: But that would mean that you are closer to Democrat Barack Obama than to your own party as far as foreign policy is concerned?

Hagel: Well, that’s right, but I don’t develop my position on foreign policy based on which politicians I support or do not support. I was espousing this position on Iraq and Iran before Obama even got to the Senate.

Contrast this with statements made by McCain Monday at the AIPAC conference in Washington.

(W)e hear talk of a meeting with the Iranian leadership offered up as if it were some sudden inspiration, a bold new idea that somehow nobody has ever thought of before. Yet it's hard to see what such a summit with President Ahmadinejad would actually gain, except an earful of anti-Semitic rants, and a worldwide audience for a man who denies one Holocaust and talks before frenzied crowds about starting another. Such a spectacle would harm Iranian moderates and dissidents, as the radicals and hardliners strengthen their position and suddenly acquire the appearance of respectability.

McCain went on to endorse political and economic sanctions against Tehran. Also in the Spiegel interview, Hagel reiterated his contention that the war in Iraq has weakened America's standing in the international community.

We invaded Iraq, we are occupying Iraq and we have made Iraq dependent on us. By our actions we have done terrible damage to our own country and undermined our interests in the world.

Clinton Dems Jumping Ship?

Matthew DeLong — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 14:59:21 GMT

Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic reports that the GOP convention HQ in St. Paul, Minn., is getting a flood of calls from "people who identify themselves as Clinton supporters" offering to help the McCain campaign, according to Matt Burns, spokesman for the convention.

This brings to mind several questions:

1. Is this true? And if so;

2. Who exactly are these people?

3. Is this a passing, visceral reaction to last night's disappointment for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's faithful? Or could this be an issue the Obama campaign will be forced to address?

4. Are there enough Democrats out there who simply won't vote for Obama to provide a boost for the McCain campaign?

My guess is that:

1. It probably is true.

2. It's most likely angry older moderate Democrats genuinely turned off by Obama; possibly some voters who simply won't consider voting for a black man (remember the reports from the Pennsylvania phone bank?)

3. It probably is passing and visceral. Most of these disheartened Clinton supporters will eventually suck it up and support Obama -- given their nominal policy differences and the Democratic desire to take back the White House. Furthermore, Obama will certainly be making overtures to Clinton voters in coming weeks in order to unite the party.

4. In the short term, this might be something for Obama to worry about. It certainly gives McCain a good reason to say nice things about Clinton in his pursuit of some of her followers, some of whom probably can be picked off. It's doubtful, however, that this phenomenon will be turning any Democratic tides (see above.)

Lieberman Questions Obama's Judgment On Iran and Israel

Matthew DeLong — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 16:52:08 GMT

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), a McCain supporter, challenged Sen. Barack Obama's judgment and experience on Israel and national security issues, following the Illinois senator's speech this morning at the influential pro-Israel lobbying group American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, conference in Washington. Lieberman said there was "a disconnect between some of the things [Obama] said today" and some of his past statements.

"To be specific, I was troubled earlier in the campaign season when Sen. Obama compared Iran and other rogue and terrorist states to the Soviet Union, and minimized the threat represented by Iran. I think that’s wrong. Today he said he thought Iran represented a grave threat. I think the statement he made today was right."

Lieberman brought up Obama's opposition to the Kyl-Lieberman amendment that labeled the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, pointing out it was supported by 29 Democratic senators. The amendment passed 76-22.

"That measure was supported by three-fourths of the Senate, including Sens. Reid, Schumer, Durbin and Clinton. Sen. Obama opposed it, saying it was saber-rattling referring to the threat of military force. If you look at the Kyl-Lieberman amendment as it was passed, it has none of that in it regarding military action. I still hope he will say that vote was a mistake and he will support that resolution."

Lieberman also challenged Obama's assertions that U.S. policies have had a negative impact on Israel's security.

"Sen. Obama today argued American foreign policy in recent years has essentially strengthened Iran. At one point he almost seemed to suggest it helped to elect (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad and has made Israel less safe. I just disagree with that. Iran(ians) elected Ahmadinejad for their own reasons. If Israel is in danger today, it’s not because of American foreign policy, which has been strongly supportive of Israel in every way. It's not because of what we’ve done in Iraq, it’s because Iran is a fanatical terrorist expansionist state. Iran has a leader -- and leaderships -- that constantly threatens to extinguish the state of Israel."

Lieberman, who was close to Obama when the Illinois senator first came to Washington, opened by congratulating him on apparently securing the Democratic nomination. While they remain friendly, Obama, like many Democrats, supported Lieberman's 2006 Democratic challenger Ned Lamont, which Lieberman certainly hasn't forgotten. It could be one reason for Lieberman's decision to campaign with the GOP candidate. Obviously, with McCain stepping up his rhetoric against the regime in Iran, the issue could figure prominently in the coming campaign.

McCain Invites Obama To Participate In Joint Town Hall Meeting

Matthew DeLong — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 17:46:30 GMT

Now that Obama seems to have wrapped up the Democratic nomination, the McCain campaign has officially offered to participate in joint town hall meetings with the Illinois senator, following speculation last month that such meetings could take place. Here is the text of the letter delivered this morning to the Obama campaign:

June 4, 2008

The Honorable Barack Obama
Obama for America
P.O. Box 8102
Chicago, Illinois 60680

Dear Senator Obama:

In 1963, Senator Barry Goldwater and President John F. Kennedy agreed to make presidential campaign history by flying together from town to town and debating each other face-to-face on the same stage. In Goldwater's words, those debates "would have done the country a lot of good." Unfortunately, with President Kennedy's untimely death, Americans lost the rare opportunity of witnessing candidates for the highest office in the land discuss civilly and extensively the great issues at stake in the election. What a welcome change it would be were presidential candidates in our time to treat each other and the people they seek to lead with respect and courtesy as they discussed the great issues of the day, without the empty sound bites and media-filtered exchanges that dominate our elections. It is in the spirit of President Kennedy's and Senator Goldwater's agreement, in the spirit of the politics of change, and to do our country good, that I invite you to join me in participating in town hall meetings across the country to discuss the most important issues facing Americans. I also suggest we fly together to the first town hall meeting as a symbolically important act embracing the politics of civility.

I propose these town hall meetings be as free from the regimented trappings, rules and spectacle of formal debates as possible, and that we pledge to the American people we will not allow the idea to die on the negotiation table as our campaigns work out the details. I suggest we agree to participate in at least ten town halls once a week with the first on June 11 or 12 in New York City at Federal Hall until the week before the Democratic Convention begins at locations to be determined by our campaigns. Federal Hall is particularly fitting as it was the place where George Washington took the oath of office as our first President and the birthplace of American government hosting the first Congress, Supreme Court and Executive Branch offices. These town halls should be attended by an audience of between two to four hundred selected by an independent polling agency, could be sixty to ninety minutes in length, have very limited moderation by an independent local moderator, take blind questions from the audience selected by the moderator and allow for equally proportional time for answers by each of us. All of these are suggestions that can be finalized by our campaigns. What is important is that we commit to participate in these history making meetings to join in the higher level of discourse that Americans clearly would prefer.

To show our good faith, we should both commit to the first town hall I have suggested. In the mean time, we can work out dates for future town hall meetings.

I look forward to your favorable reply and to the opportunity to work with you to give Americans a better opportunity to understand our differences, our agreements and the leadership we offer them.

Sincerely,

John McCain

Of course, town hall meetings will likely play to McCain's acknowledged strength of one-on-one communication with voters, while Obama is considered more the grand orator. Should Obama accept, as his campaign said he would last month, this certainly promises to make the next few months a bit more interesting...

Cantor Highlights McCain's Experience on National Security

Matthew DeLong — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 18:56:43 GMT

In what is certain to become a fixture in Republican attacks on Sen. Barack Obama, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.) sought to contrast Sen. John McCain's lengthy record on foreign-relations issues with one of Obama's biggest perceived weaknesses: his lack of experience on foreign policy. Following Obama's speech at the AIPAC conference this morning, Cantor spoke to reporters as a surrogate for the McCain campaign in conference call.

"To allege that somehow our efforts, in terms of trying to bring our allies along to isolate the regime in Iran, cannot work, illustrates a lack of experience in dealing with foreign policy and issues of U.S. security…Sen. McCain has consistently been very clear in his position that we ought not be allowing any respect or validation going towards a terrorist regime. With that statement you cannot then undercut yourself and sit down with such players. We have to do what Sen. McCain is talking about: joining our allies in a series of valid sanctions that work to isolate the regime and its power base."

Obama is already believed to have a problem with some Jewish voters when it comes to protecting Israel, and Cantor played on this perception by questioning Obama's fortitude as a leader:

"I don’t think [Obama's speech] did anything to dispel the doubts about Barack Obama’s positions on the U.S.-Israel relationship, or the likelihood that he would have the strength of leadership or character to protect Israel’s interests, as a pillar in America’s national security policy. At the end of the day, I think it’s easy to talk about supporting Israel, as Barack Obama did today, but it’s hard to actually do it. John McCain has had 30 years of foreign relations experience. He has had extensive travel to the region. His support has never wavered…I think that John McCain doesn’t need any on-the-job training. It’s in his DNA."

Not to re-open an old can of worms, but it's interesting to hear an American politician discuss protecting "Israel's interests as a pillar in America's national security policy." Wasn't this essentially what all the commotion over the so-called "Israel lobby" was about?

New McCain Ad Targets Latinos

Matthew DeLong — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 21:14:07 GMT

The McCain campaign today debuted a 60-second Spanish-language radio ad focusing on the economy in Nevada and New Mexico. The spot comes as both parties try to woo the Latino vote in key battleground states, like Nevada and New Mexico, as well as in Florida, where recent voter registration figures show many young Cubans are less anti-Castro, and less Republican, than their parents.

The Democrats definitely have the edge. Recent polls show that, overall, the GOP's tough stance on illegal immigration has driven Latino voters away from the party in droves, particularly in the Southwest.

New U.S. Census Bureau data shows that Latinos now make up more than 15 percent of the total U.S. population -- more than 45 million people -- and are growing faster than any other minority group. They are a key swing voting bloc.

It is true that Sen. John McCain opposed the nativist elements in his own party and stood with Democrats to support comprehensive immigration reform. This position went a long way toward reinforcing McCain's reputation as a maverick, willing to buck his own party. Whether this helps insulate the Arizona senator from the exodus of Latino voters from the Republican Party is one of the big questions of the 2008 election.

Here are the ad transcripts, translated and not:

"Economy" -- (Radio:60)

ANNCR: When we are buying groceries, we don't have a political party. When we are filling up the gas tank, we are not Republicans, Democrats or Independents. We are Hispanics, and we all are hurting together in this uncertain economic time. We need someone that has a good economic plan, and that is John McCain. His plan is a realistic plan, not a political one, and it will help jump-start the local and national economies.

He proposed to Congress a federal gas-tax holiday for the summer months. He wants middle-class families to pay less taxes so we can have more money in our pocket and less in Washington. And he wants to help families hurt by the housing crisis under his HOME Plan.

He is optimistic and knows that we all, "unidos," together, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, can find a better way to fill up our tanks, our shopping carts, and our dreams.

That's why in (Nevada/New Mexico), "Estamos Unidos con John McCain."

JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

ANNCR: Paid for by John McCain 2008.

En español:

ANNCR: Cuando estamos comprando en el supermercado, no tenemos partido poltico. Cuando estamos llenando el tanque de la gasolina, no somos Republicanos, Demcratas o Independientes. Somos Hispanos y estamos sufriendo juntos en estos tiempos de incertidumbre econmica. Necesitamos a alguien que tenga un buen plan econmico, ese alguien es John McCain. Su plan es realista, no poltico y ayudar a reactivar la economa local y nacional.

l propuso al Congreso quitar el impuesto de la gasolina en los meses de verano. Quiere que las familias de clase media paguen menos impuestos para que tengamos ms dinero en nuestra bolsa y menos dinero (para la burocracia en) Washington. Y con su plan llamado H.O.M.E. quiere ayudar a las familias que estn padeciendo la crisis hipotecaria.

John McCain es optimista y sabe que todos unidos, Republicanos, Demcratas e Independientes, podemos encontrar soluciones para llenar nuestros tanques de gasolina, nuestros carritos del supermercado y nuestros sueos.

Por eso en Nevada/Nuevo Mxico, Estamos Unidos con John McCain.

JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

ANNCR: Paid for by John McCain 2008.

One interesting note: Even in a Spanish-language ad, McCain speaks English.

Can McCain Compete Financially?

Matthew DeLong — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 15:35:00 GMT

An interesting story in The Politico focuses on campaign money. Sen. Barack Obama's fund-raising juggernaut has far out-performed Sen. John McCain's lackluster operation, which is proving to be a major concern for Republicans:

A review of campaign finance data offers not one ounce of good news and barely any hope for the McCain campaign’s ability to compete with Obama’s fund-raising prowess.

To make matters worse, Obama’s campaign, which raised $272 million through April for the primary, now is reaching out to Clinton’s fund-raisers, who raised another $200 million through April, in an effort to unite forces and bury the historically deep-pocketed Republicans.

Take a look at some of the numbers:

• If each of Obama’s donors gave him a modest $250, he’d have $375 million to spend during the two-month general election sprint. That’s $186 million a month; $47 million a week.

• During the same September to Nov. 4 period, McCain will have about $85 million to spend since he has decided to take taxpayer money to help finance his campaign activities.

• The Republican National Committee, which is charged with closing the gap between McCain and Obama, has $40 million in cash. Obama raised almost as much — $31 million – from just his small donors in the month of February. His total for the month, $57 million, exceeded the RNC’s cash balance.

According to Fox News, McCain raised a personal record of $22 million in May. Obama's May totals aren't out yet, but McCain's record pales in comparison to Obama's personal record, the aforementioned February total of $57 million. Now that Obama has essentially wrapped up the Democratic nomination, he has begun to reach out to Clinton donors. Together, the two Democratic candidates raised more than $56 million in April, according to Opensecrets.org.

As the Politico story notes, McCain isn't a great fund-raiser to begin with, and his inability to excite the Republican base has exacerbated his fund-raising difficulties.

“What’s been striking about the McCain money is that there hasn’t been any big surge,” says Anthony Corrado, an expert on campaign finance. “There are no big spikes; there is slow growth.”

So will McCain be able to pick up the pace and have any chance of competing, financially, with Obama? Probably not. But he may not be totally out of the game. as another Politico story hints. True, McCain still has a rocky relationship with many of his congressional colleagues, due to the senator's posturing as a cranky independent voice within the GOP and his desire to publicly distance himself from an unpopular Republican president. But he may be able to court popular allies and convince them to come out on the stump, and more important, persuade their supporters to open their wallets.

On the Senate side, McCain already enjoys closer personal relationships with some of his Republican colleagues. GOP insiders expect Sens. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) and Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) — both of whom have strong political networks in their home states — to join McCain surrogates, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), on the trail in support of the presidential candidate in the fall.

Also, there is still time for conservatives to accept reality and coalesce around the likely Republican nominee. As a former GOP activist once told me, you can never discount the GOP's fund-raising machine -- because it always has the uncanny ability to raise $20 million overnight with a few well-placed phone calls.

Romney Shows Up On CNN for McCain

Matthew DeLong — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 17:45:00 GMT

Former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney made an appearance on CNN this morning on behalf of his former rival, Sen. John McCain. The ex-Massachusetts governor added his voice to the echo chamber by repeating the GOP talking point that Sen. Obama blundered in announcing he would meet with America's enemies:

CNN'S JOHN ROBERTS: "So, [Obama's] saying that this is not a frivolous meeting. This would only be done if he felt he could advance American interests."

GOV. ROMNEY: "You know, he's going to do his very best to try to walk back from what he said at the Democratic debate; and, in the Democratic debates the other candidates made it very clear they would not sit down with Ahmadinejad, himself, or with Assad, or Kim Jung-Il, or Castro, without condition. And, Barack Obama said he would sit down with them in his first year. He would meet with them without condition. A statement like that shows a naive lack of experience that I think is going to haunt him throughout this campaign...That's simply the wrong course for American foreign policy. You only meet with those people when there have been conditions met and when there's been progress. Of course, you talk diplomatically. Diplomatic channels are always open between nations of the world. But the President doesn't grace the world's worst tyrants with a propaganda bonanza."

Romney was one of the three potential veep candidates who reportedly visited McCain's Sedona, Ariz. ranch a couple weeks ago. It seems an unlikely choice on paper, given Romney's primary troubles in reconciling some of his recent conservative positions as a presidential candidate with his liberal positions as governor. Another possible issue is his Mormonism, which at least in theory could turn off some Christian conservatives McCain needs to court.

But it's possible Romney could help deliver his home state of Michigan, a key battleground that the Democrats carried in 2000 and 2004, where Romney's father was governor. Recent polling shows Obama and McCain are running neck-and-neck in the Wolverine State. McCain has also been adopting Romney's more compassionate tone in addressing the economic woes of midwestern states, like Michigan and Ohio, that have been hit hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs that have moved overseas. And at a young-looking 61-years-old, Romney could help assuage voter concerns about McCain's age.

Yes, Romney as McCain's running mate may be unlikely, but it might not be crazy.

Lieberman Announces New Group 'Citizens for McCain'

Matthew DeLong — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 19:46:40 GMT

Hot off the presses from the McCain campaign, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) sent out a mass email to McCain supporters announcing a new group, "Citizens for McCain," of which Lieberman is the creator and chair. The Connecticut senator, a former Democrat, caused quite a stir yesterday, when he took part in a conference call organized by the McCain campaign. During the call, Lieberman took issue with some of Sen. Barack Obama's remarks before the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee convention in Washington. From the email:

Citizens for McCain is an organization within the McCain campaign for people who put country before political party and support the candidate for President who has a proven record of bipartisanship.

As you know, I caucus with the Democrats as a United States Senator and was the Democrat Party's nominee for Vice-President of the United States against President Bush and Vice President Cheney.

But first and foremost, I am an American. I have an obligation to do what I think is best for our nation regardless of political party. My love for this country and strong belief in John McCain's character, judgment, and willingness to work with leaders of both parties has convinced me to support him for President.

I have worked with John McCain for many years in the U.S. Senate and know from experience that he can unite Democrats, Republicans and Independents like no one else in this country. He did it in the United States Senate and he can do it as President of the United States.

The email contains an appeal to "help us by recruiting your friends, family and coworkers who may not consider themselves part of the Republican Party." Lieberman praises McCain for "his courage to stand up to the failed Iraq war plan of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld," and he makes another overture to Hillary Clinton supporters.

The phones at the campaign headquarters have been ringing with disaffected Democrats calling to say they believe Senator McCain has the experience, judgment, and bipartisanship necessary to lead our country in these difficult times. Many of these supporters are former supporters of Senator Clinton.

Senator McCain has had a very good working relationship with Senator Clinton and will continue to do so in the future. In the same New Orleans speech he said:

"Senator Clinton has earned great respect for her tenacity and courage. The media often overlooked how compassionately she spoke to the concerns and dreams of millions of Americans, and she deserves a lot more appreciation than she sometimes received. As the father of three daughters, I owe her a debt for inspiring millions of women to believe there is no opportunity in this great country beyond their reach. I am proud to call her my friend."

I guess whatever Obama said to Lieberman on the Senate floor yesterday didn't have the desired effect, as it appears Lieberman is on the McCain train full-time.

Hurricane McCain

Matthew DeLong — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 21:58:54 GMT

Hurricane McCain arrived in Florida today. To coincide with Sen. John McCain's two-day visit, the Florida Democratic Party unveiled a new Website that features a minute-and-a-half-long TV spot it plans to begin airing soon. The ad is critical of McCain's opposition to a national catastrophe fund that would lower the cost of disaster insurance in hurricane- and earthquake-prone areas.

Naturally, both the McCain and Obama campaigns used the issue as a vehicle for unloading talking points on each other today.

"Once again John McCain has made clear that he is much more interested in standing with George Bush than getting the facts right or doing what’s right. But what John McCain doesn’t understand is that by choosing to stand with George Bush’s failed policies instead of standing with the families of Florida he can’t deliver the change the country needs and deserves,” Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan said in a statement.

The McCain camp responded:

“It’s disappointing that for the second day in a row for Sen. Obama has chosen to use natural catastrophes to launch political attacks -- that’s not ‘change we can believe in.’ John McCain is opposed to a government-run National Catastrophe Fund, not because he doesn’t have serious concerns about the cost of insurance in Florida, but because it ignores the need for private insurance reforms to broaden markets and protections against the cherry-picking of individual states. John McCain earned Gov. Crist’s endorsement well after Sen. McCain had articulated his position on this issue, because John McCain has the strength, experience and judgment to lead."

With hurricane season fast approaching, Florida Democrats are planning to make the issue central to the presidential campaign in the state. Former Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani, whose unsuccessful bid for the nomination focused on winning the Florida primary -- which he didn't -- made his support for a national catastrophe fund the centerpiece of his strategy. Florida's Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate, has lobbied Congress for the creation of a national catastrophe fund. If 2008 turns out to be a bad year for hurricanes, the issue could come back to haunt McCain.

Grass Roots McCain

Matthew DeLong — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 14:06:45 GMT

Supporters of Sen. John McCain received a slew of emails this morning from big-name backers in key swing states. The messages encourage voters of all persuasions to join "Citizens for McCain," the new marketing strategy, er, "grass-roots effort" -- though apparently organized by the campaign -- announced yesterday by Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.)

The messages were attributed to Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, who was the Bush administration's first secretary of homeland security, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, McCain's former rival for the nomination.

Of course, Massachusetts is not much of a swing state. However, Romney's message was all about his home state of Michigan, where his father was governor -- a battleground with 17 electoral votes.

I was humbled by the support I received from Michiganders on both sides of the aisle during my run for the Republican nomination. Through my father's leadership as governor of the great state of Michigan and during my time spent in business, government and running the Olympics, I learned the important lesson of working with different stakeholders to accomplish great things. I know Michigan voters want a president who is willing to reach across the political aisle to accomplish the goals of protecting our country, growing our economy and reforming our government.

Crist and Ridge both have reputations as moderates with cross-party appeal. Each is popular in his respective home state. A Quinnipiac poll out this month places Crist's job approval rating at 61 percent. Ridge is one of an ever-dwindling number of pro-choice Republican politicians, though he has supported some restrictions on abortion in Pennsylvania. All three men have been mentioned as possible candidates for vice president on the McCain ticket.

McCain's Disembodied Head Talks About War

Matthew DeLong — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 16:13:17 GMT

Sen. John McCain's newest campaign ad debuted on YouTube this morning. According to the campaign, "this is the first ad in a major new ad campaign targeting battleground states."

The 30-second TV spot, titled "Safe," is just that. It discusses the horrors of war, without mentioning Iraq, the 800-lb gorilla in the room. In the ad, McCain recounts the history of his family's military service and highlights the most well-known item on his resume: he served in Vietnam and spent more than five years there as a prisoner of war. Here is the script:

Only a fool or a fraud talks tough or romantically about war.

When I was five years old, my father left for war.

My grandfather came home from war and died the next day.

I was shot down over Vietnam and spent five years as a POW. Some of the friends I served with never came home.

I hate war.

And I know how terrible its costs are.

I'm running for president to keep the country I love safe.

I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

Production notes: McCain is moodily side-lit from the right and appears to be wearing a black suit against a solid black background. You only see half his face, everything else is bathed in shadow -- which makes you feel as if you are watching a floating, disembodied head. This could be to to take focus away from the left side of his face, which is scarred from a bout with melanoma. Still, it's a little eerie.

Diaz-Balart Defends McCain on Everglades

Matthew DeLong — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 18:40:53 GMT

In a conference call today with reporters organized by the McCain campaign, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) defended Sen. John McCain -- who is currently on a 2-day swing through the state -- against criticism over the Arizona senator's opposition to a 2007 omnibus water bill that authorized a $2 billion Everglades restoration project. The $23 billion measure passed both the House and Senate, only to be vetoed by President George W Bush. However, the veto was overriden, the first veto override of Bush's presidency. Diaz-Balart, whose district includes Everglades National Park, said McCain opposed the legislation not because of an opposition to Everglades restoration -- a key environmental issue in Florida -- but because it was laden with pork.

"I’ve worked with Sen. McCain on Everglades restoration as long as I’ve been in Congress. It’s important to note that out of $23 billion in the water bill -- a bill that I supported, having to hold my nose because of the issues that Sen. McCain correctly points out -- only $2 billion was for Everglades restoration. So there’s 280 projects that are outside the [Army Corps of Engineers] main responsibilities for water and wastewater infrastructure."

Diaz-Balart then quoted McCain on the bill:

"He said, 'I believe that we should be passing a bill that will authorize legitimate, needed projects without sacrificing fiscal responsibility.' One of those projects that the senator has always fought for has been Everglades restoration. [The attack] frankly, pun intended, doesn’t hold water."

Diaz-Balart claimed the attack originated with the Obama campaign, and seized the opportunity to blast Obama on past statements about his willingness to meet with hostile foreign leaders.

"It’s just trying to hide the real story, which is Sen. Obama’s willingness -- and his naiveté of thinking you can meet with known thugs and terrorists with no preconditions and somehow they are going to be swayed by his beautiful rhetoric. [This] is why he has such serious issues in this community and a variety of different communities. That is the issue: poor judgment [of] Sen. Obama and strong leadership by Sen. McCain on fighting for what he believes in and supporting Everglades restoration."

In a moment of brutal honesty, Diaz-Balart essentially said he lacked the same strength of character he praised in McCain -- opting to vote for the bill despite misgivings about pork.

"I voted for it because, I admit it, I was being parochial. I represent the entirety of the Everglades…Sen. McCain, frankly, doesn’t play that game. He does what he believes is best for the entirety of the nation…I represent this area and I went along with some of that pork barrel spending. " /p>

McCain Sides With Bush on Domestic Surveillance

Matthew DeLong — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 21:07:46 GMT

It is no secret that Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign has a delicate relationship with President George W. Bush. On one hand, McCain has often sought to distance himself from the unpopular president and many of his policies in an effort to appeal to independent voters.

Exhibit A: his remarks Tuesday evening in Kenner, La.:

You will hear from my opponent's campaign in every speech, every interview, every press release that I'm running for President Bush's third term. You will hear every policy of the president described as the Bush-McCain policy. Why does Sen. Obama believe it's so important to repeat that idea over and over again? Because he knows it's very difficult to get Americans to believe something they know is false...

I have worked with the president to keep our nation safe. But he and I have not seen eye-to-eye on many issues. We've disagreed over the conduct of the war in Iraq and the treatment of detainees; over out-of-control government spending and budget gimmicks; over energy policy and climate change; over defense spending that favored defense contractors over the public good.
I disagreed strongly with the Bush administration's mismanagement of the war in Iraq...

Exhibit B: When the president visited McCain's home state of Arizona to attend a campaign fund-raiser, the two appeared together in public for only a brief moment on the airport tarmac as Bush boarded Air Force one to leave.

On the other hand, McCain must walk a tightrope with conservative voters, who may feel slighted if the senator disavows the president too much. From a story in this morning's USA Today:

As for his ties to his onetime rival Bush, McCain stressed that he is not trying to distance himself in the fall to win over independents, who are a key part of the electorate in battlegrounds such as New Hampshire and Oregon.

"I'm not trying to separate myself," he said. "I'm trying to point out my own record and my own plan of action to solve our housing, energy, economic and national security challenges."

Today, The New York Times reported McCain supports one of the Bush administration's most controversial policies: the warrantless surveillance of the electronic communications of Americans.

In a letter posted online by National Review this week, the adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, said Mr. McCain believed that the Constitution gave Mr. Bush the power to authorize the National Security Agency to monitor Americans’ international phone calls and e-mail without warrants, despite a 1978 federal statute that required court oversight of surveillance.

Mr. McCain believes that “neither the administration nor the telecoms need apologize for actions that most people, except for the A.C.L.U. and trial lawyers, understand were constitutional and appropriate in the wake of the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001,” Mr. Holtz-Eakin wrote.

And if Mr. McCain is elected president, Mr. Holtz-Eakin added, he would do everything he could to prevent terrorist attacks, “including asking the telecoms for appropriate assistance to collect intelligence against foreign threats to the United States as authorized by Article II of the Constitution.”

However, as the Times article notes, this position represents a shift from some of the senator's past statements.

In an interview about his views on the limits of executive power with The Boston Globe six months ago, Mr. McCain strongly suggested that if he became the next commander in chief, he would consider himself obligated to obey a statute restricting what he did in national security matters.

Mr. McCain was asked whether he believed that the president had constitutional power to conduct surveillance on American soil for national security purposes without a warrant, regardless of federal statutes.

He replied: “There are some areas where the statutes don’t apply, such as in the surveillance of overseas communications. Where they do apply, however, I think that presidents have the obligation to obey and enforce laws that are passed by Congress and signed into law by the president, no matter what the situation is.”

While his position could play well with national security-conservatives, it may turn away many of the moderates he has been courting so aggressively. It could also scare off libertarians, who are wary of the expansion of presidential power that has taken place under this administration -- many of whom vote Republican. Furthermore, the Obama campaign could use this story as ammunition for a new round of "Bush's third term" attacks on McCain.

Of all the issues he could have chosen to stand firm with the president, McCain has picked one of the riskiest.

McCain Website Launches New Blog

Matthew DeLong — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 22:40:04 GMT

The McCain campaign has unveiled a new blog, dubbed "The McCain Report," that will allow supporters, reporters and bloggers to interact with the campaign. According to the campaign Website:

The goal of this project is pretty straightforward: to provide journalists and bloggers with a little more insight into what's going on over here, to provide quotes and information you won't be able to get anywhere else, and to serve as a point of contact for online media.

From the campaign's email announcement:

"Today our campaign launched an innovative blog that will provide voters across the country a unique vehicle to keep in touch with the campaign. The blog will offer a fresh perspective and will include quotes, the candidate's schedule and photos not available anywhere else.

"As a part of our continual effort to reach voters, allow unprecedented access and bring greater transparency to American politics, our blog 'The McCain Report' will provide a sounding board for all. Please visit our web site at www.johnmccain.com/mccainreport and get in touch with our campaign as we move toward success in November."

The blog currently features a photo of the Arizona senator holding what appears to be a young alligator -- or is it a caiman -- on a trip to the Everglades in 2004. Conveniently, the debut of the blog coincides with another visit to the Everglades earlier this afternoon.

Watchdog Group Files FEC Complaint Against McCain

Matthew DeLong — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 16:00:00 GMT

A campaign finance watchdog group announced that it is filing a pair of complaints against the McCain campaign with the Federal Elections Commission for possible violations of federal law. According to The Baltimore Sun, Campaign Money Watch will ask the FEC to investigate "payments made by a lobbying firm, the Loeffler Group LLP, to McCain's national finance director, Susan Nelson, who used to work for the firm." The other complaint "suggests that there was something improper about a business slashing an invoice sent to the campaign by more than $100,000 when the business is partly owned by campaign manager Rick Davis."

The non-profit watchdog group has also launched a TV ad that raises questions about Sen. John McCain's alleged ties to lobbyists. From ABC News:

The TV ad from Campaign Money Watch, set to run on Washington, D.C., broadcast and cable outlets starting Monday, focuses on McCain's role in the awarding of an Air Force contract that would eventually go to the French company Airbus instead of the American company Boeing.

"Seven of McCain’s staff and fundraisers lobbied for Airbus," the ad says. "And guess what? John McCain intervened, which helped Airbus get that Pentagon contract. Tell John McCain to kick those lobbyists off the Straight Talk Express."

According to ABC News, the campaign issued a swift rebuttal.

The McCain campaign dismissed the allegations, calling them "baseless" and expressing confidence that the FEC complaint would be dismissed.

On the Boeing-Airbus deal, McCain aides note that the senator did not directly intervene on Airbus' behalf, but rather encouraged the Air Force to level the playing field during the bidding process.

"This is a joke," said McCain spokesman Brian Rogers. "John McCain's investigation of the bogus tanker deal saved taxpayers over $6 billion and exposed one of the biggest scandals in Pentagon history, for which executives and government officials went to jail. And now he's being attacked for fighting corruption and shaking up the status quo in Washington? It's absurd."

The Arizona senator has carefully cultivated an image as a reformer not beholden to special interests. However, several recent news stories have raised concerns about McCain's alleged ties to lobbyists. In February, The New York Times caused a firestorm when it suggested McCain may have had an impropers relationship with a female lobbyist, but failed to offer proof. The article discussed but did not fully explore the GOP candidate's links to various other lobbyists. Last month, the McCain campaign instituted a new policy to combat allegations that the presumed GOP nominee is too close to lobbyists -- requiring all campaign officials with ties to lobbyists to either sever them or resign. A handful of officials left the campaign. The issue will likely remain central to the Democrats' attacks against McCain. Last week, the Democratic National Committee released a web ad titled, "McCain's Lobbyist Friends."