Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)(WDCpix)
McCain's Arizona Woes Continue
New Poll Shows Obama Up by Three Points in McCain's Home State
By John Dougherty
07/10/2008
| 13 Comments
PHOENIX -- In a sign of continued weakness in his home state, an online poll shows Sen. John McCain trailing Sen. Barack Obama by 3-percentage points in Arizona. The poll also shows the candidacy of Liberterian Bob Barr is having a significant impact on McCain's campaign by siphoning off conservative voters nationwide.
The Arizona poll was part of nationwide Zogby International poll that put Obama ahead in total electoral votes with 273 to 160 for McCain. The poll found 11 states with 105 electoral votes too close to call -- including Arizona. McCain’s campaign in June included Arizona among its list of swing states.
McCain not only faced problems with Independent voters, he is losing a small, but potentially lethal voting block of the GOP right to Barr. The former Republican congressman from Georgia is pulling just enough voters in many states to shift the balance to Obama. Whether this bloc will remain in Barr's camp on election day could determine the outcome.
“Barr is hurting McCain all across the country,” said Fritz Wenzel, director of communications for Zogby.
The Zogby poll of 1,142 likely Arizona voters was conducted June 11-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey found Obama leading in Arizona with 42 percent of the vote, followed by McCain with 39 percent. Barr had 7 percent, followed by Independent Ralph Nader with 2 percent. Five percent of the voters selected other candidates and 5 percent were undecided.
Wenzel said 16 percent of Arizona voters who described themselves as very conservative said they would vote for Barr, with 64 percent backing McCain. The double-digit defection to Barr signals further trouble ahead for Arizona’s senior Senator.
“That’s very dangerous for a Republican candidate,” Wentzel said.
The poll shows Obama crushing McCain among Arizona Independent voters, 51 percent to 28 percent. The number of Independent voters in Arizona has skyrocketed in the last year and now makes up 27 percent of the state's voters. Republicans continue to hold a narrow 38 percent to 34 percent lead over Democrats in registered voters.
The McCain campaign did not return a call this afternoon from The Washington Independent for comment on the poll. The Arizona Republic reported Thursday that McCain's campaign called the Zogby poll a "fraud" and questioned the methodology of Internet polling. "John McCain has won every campaign he has run in Arizona, and he will win in November," Kurt Davis, Arizona McCain '08 co-chairman, told the newspaper.
John Zogby, president and chief executive officer of Zogby, said the poll was a scientific survey of voters likely to participate. "This is, for the moment, a very useful tool that suggests to me that John McCain has not closed the deal in his home state," Zogby told the Republic.
Recent polls of Arizona registered voters by traditional pollsters have found McCain leading Obama by about 10 percentage points, with Obama steadily narrowing the gap. In April, McCain led Obama by 20 points. In late June, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey showed McCain with 49 percent of the vote and Obama with 40 percent.
A statewide Cronkite/Eight poll of registered voters conducted by Arizona State University in late June found that 38 percent said they would vote for McCain and 28 percent said they would vote for Obama, with 34 percent undecided.
Traditional pollsters relying on telephone surveys often criticize online polls for their lack of scientific methodology. “Online polls are not being heavily relied upon and are not anything other than folkloric,” said Earl de Berg, director of the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center that conducts the Rocky Mountain Poll. The latest Rocky Mountain Poll conducted in May found McCain with 10-percentage point lead over Obama in Arizona.
But, de Berg said, if the online poll is properly conducted, it could be a valid measurement. "If their sampling is good, then their numbers stand on their own right," he said.
Wentzel said the sampling is carefully controlled to mirror the percentage of voters registered as Democrats, Republicans and Independents. The online survey is followed up with a telephone validation survey of 2 percent of the online respondents. Strict controls are also employed to prevent survey participants from voting multiple times under different names. “It’s highly controlled," Wentzel said, "and it’s a very scientific process.”
Wentzel said the significant difference between the Zogby poll showing Obama leading Arizona while other polls have McCain up by about 10 percentage points can be attributed to Zogby’s focus on likely voters as opposed to registered voters.
Wentzel said the national race remains close even though the survey shows Obama winning 273 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. “It’s way too close to make any conclusive remarks about who is going to win this election,” he said. “But it is clear that Obama is not only holding his own in key Democratic strongholds, but he is making inroads into traditional Republican areas.”
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© 2007 The Washington Independent
Comments:
Posted 07/11/2008 10:10am with
How great would it be if McCain lost in his home state?
Posted 07/11/2008 03:21pm with
Hi John McCain:
I’m one of the people that looses because you never ask for pork barrel spending for your state.
Gee! a call center in Indian country instead of India would help my family and neighbors.
But I’m not wining I’m Bitter!
You see I live in one of the poorest parts of the United States.
Employment on my Native American Reservation is over 60%.
I live 90 miles from the nearest small town, Winslow, AZ. So when I
drive 180 miles round trip to go grocery shopping I am dam BITTER.
When I spend 1/4 if my monthly budget on gas I am extremely BITTER.
In the last year my propane bill for fuel to cook and heat my home
has more then doubled – you could bet I am awfully BITTER when I
have to scrape the money together to pay that bill.
I do work but in the past two years I have not had an increase in salary.
Many of my friends have lost their jobs and they are really suffering
– do you think they have a reason to be BITTER?
We depend on tourism for our lively hood on the reservation. How many
people do you think are going to visit the reservation when gas is
over $4.50 per gallon here?
So Phil Gramm and John McCain if you think it’s all in my mind YOU are suffering from mental delusions. if you think when push comes to shove anyone but the top 2% of the nations wealthiest citizens will vote for you it is you who is suffering from hallucinations.
Posted 07/11/2008 04:48pm with
I live in the Phoenix metro and have been predicting this for a long time. Many people here despise McCain because he’s spent the last number of years concentrating on his political ambitions instead of representing his state. Even the Phoenix newspaper, the right-leaning Arizona Republic, runs articles periodically on this very topic and is critical of McCain and his fellow buffoon, John Kyl, as well as our various criminal and otherwise ridiculous Republian congressmen. Also aggravating Arizonans is McCain’s lie that he is a Goldwater Republican. Most Arizonans I talk to considers McCain completely out of touch with us rank and file Americans, you know, the ones who are not in the top 1% financially. Many here know better, including Goldwater’s descendents who are supporting Obama Barack. We feel there’s no doubt McCain will pick Romney for VP, not just to try to get control of Michigan but also to try to get control of his home turf since there are many mormons in the Phoenix area. Pretty embarrassing for people in your home state to smack you down. I support Barack Obama and I approve this message.
Posted 07/11/2008 05:38pm with
I’m a white 61-year-old Republican Grandmother.
My home is few miles from John McCain’s ranch in Northern Arizona.
And No – his ranch is not in Sedona, as the press likes to state, it 22 miles away in Cornville. When I moved to Sedona I registered as a John McCain Republican. Unfortunately it was the OLD John McCain, before he became a clone of George Bush. Today because of my fears for the economy. Bush’s war of revenge. And my fear of the control of the Radical Conservative Republican’s, lower taxes for the wealthy – the hell with the economy. I have been donating to Obama’s Campaign. Why? because I could afford to pay a little more in taxes, I would rather pay a bit more today then leave the bill to my grand children, great grandchildren, great – great – great grandchildren.
Posted 07/11/2008 07:27pm with
I’m a white 62-year-old Democratic Grandmother, and I’m with verafromsedona! I always voted for Barry Goldwater, but this pretender to that throne is just a fake. I hope Barack takes Arizona right out from under McCain… he was a carpetbagger when he came here and he has done nothing for the state since!
Posted 07/11/2008 07:37pm with
Hey, John Dougherty!! Love me some John Dougherty since his days at Phoenix’s only REAL newspaper, The Phoenix New Times. Great story. Hope it’s true. I know many are working here to turn AZ blue!!!
Posted 07/11/2008 07:49pm with
I live in AZ and I hope Obama beats McCain here in AZ. He didn’t do anything for AZ. The way he is messing up I dont think he will win in too many places. He cannot keep his stories straight. Some days he is for an issues and the next day he is against the same issue. McCain just has those senior moments and I hate to say this but I am the age of McCain and I would not like to take that responsibility of the president and I just think his age is going to go against him.
Posted 07/11/2008 09:44pm with
Absolutely nothing written about this idiot would surprise me anymore, It has to be so embarrassing for the republican party to know this is all they have, let alone all the misspoken words, usually not even knowing what he’s talking about, having a wife who steals cookie recipe’s and then has the nerve to copy and paste them into a magazine would be enough for me to crawl under a hole and hide. I think the only thing he does know how to talk about is national security and he can’t even get that right. Nothing thrills me more than to watch Keith Olberman mock him, it isn’t too hard but he does it better than anyone. I think McCain, Bush, Rove, Graham and all the other idiots should all move to Pakistan. They couldn’t get it right the first time and cost us trillions of dollars in the US, there couldn’t be a better place for all of them!!!!! Anyone with a brain will vote for Obama, funny when his plane made an emergency landing he sat around and figured out the numbers of McCain economy plan and yes what economy plan was that!!!! If McCain got landed suddenly he probably wouldn’t even know where to go. One pitiful man and please stop talking and trying to smile, both are soooooooo boring and the smile is like looking at the grinch who stole Christmas, or perhaps we could call it the grinch who stole everything Obama talks about and tries to switch it around to his words. One worthless man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please McCain make up some lies they are so entertaining. Pretty sad when you can’t even win your own state!!!
Posted 07/11/2008 09:57pm with
I had a lot more respect for McCain when he was truly a maverick and moderate Republican—the McCain who ran against Bush in 2000. In my opinion, he sold his soul in order to win the Republican nomination, and now he’s just another Bush Republican. And when I say “sold his soul”, I mean that, in order to win the support of Bush’s neoconservative base, he started embracing policy positions that he previously opposed, and vice versa. Everyone criticized John Kerry for being a flip-flopper in 2004, and that’s part of what cost him the election then. Obama has flip-flopped on a few issues, but McCain has turned it into an art form.
Posted 07/12/2008 07:45am with
Great news!! I used to support his past service in Vietnam and though I disagreed with some of his issues (I’ve always been prochoice) I respected the man who ran against Bush in 2000 for standing up to neocons and later for being against the Bush tax cuts.
But he is just going to give us another Bush term. What has really surprised me in the last few months is that he sounds as clueless and stupid as Bush.
This country, this WORLD, cannot afford another Bush term.
Posted 07/12/2008 12:01pm with
I AM SOMEWHAT SUSPICIOUS OF YOU SO CALLED REPUBLICANS. I AM A CONSERVATIVE/REPUBLICAN & DO NOT REALLY CARE FOR EITHER CANDIDATE. HOWEVER, I DO NOT TRUST OBAMA IN ANY WAY. (GOOGLE FRANK MARSHALL DAVIS OBAMA). DAVIS IS THE FRANK MENTIONED IN ONE OF OBAMA’S BOOKS, WHO IS BARRACK’S COMMUNIST MENTOR. FURTHERMORE, BARR WAS IN HIS YOUNGER DAYS AN VIETNAM ANTI-WAR DEMOCRAT, UNTIL HIS MILITARY PARENTS THREATENED TO DISOWN HIM. OH, BY THE WAY HE NOW IS A PAID ATTORNEY FOR THE AMERICAN CIVIL LIBERTIES UNION (ACLU). HOPE, MY FELLOW CONSERVATIVES APPRECIATE THIS. WHO IS THE REAL BARRACK H. OBAMA; I BET IF YOU FOUND OUT YOU WOULD NOT BE TOO HAPPY WITH HIM. PLEASE, DO NOT THROW OUT THE BABY WITH THE BATH WATER.
NICE TRY; OBAMA SUPPORTERS. A BLIND MAN CAN SEE THROUGH YOU GUYS.
Posted 07/12/2008 03:47pm with
McCain evidently is enjoying the same media deference given to Bush. The media rarely made demands on Bush to answer questions surrounding his scurrilous past and dropped the ball on his (scrubbed or destroyed) military records. The media’s silence on McCain’s refusal to release his entire naval record and Cindy’s complete financial records is puzzling and implies a double-standard: one for McCain and Bush and the other for Kerry and Obama.
Uninformed voters went to the polls unknowingly elected a media creation to run the country might do so again unless reporters hold McCain to the same standard as they do Barack Obama.
Had voters known beforehand every business undertaking went bankrupt Bush probably would not be in the WH today and our economy would not be in a meltdown on the brink of recession.
How confident can we be that the next President will refrain from manufacturing intelligence to wage unnecessary war; will not suppress, censor or hide reports containing environmental, science, medical information; will not make decisions based on ideology for political gain, etc. etc. etc… Separating the wheat from the shaft is an impossible task when the media withholds pertinent information and/or frames a narrative couched in terms intentionally meant to obfuscate the facts.
While Obama receives unrelentless criticism for alleged policy changes based on a false media narrative, yet McCain’s 180 degree changes on 61 separate issues concerning national security, the economy, immigration, energy, domestic and foreign policies, et al goes scott free… See here:
http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/16124.html#…
In addition to the 61 reversals, earlier this week, McCain originally agreed with Phil Gramm that Americans are whining about a recession that amounts to nothing more than a “mental” recession. Of course later he sought to distance himself from Gramm’s remarks. But understand, Gramm, McCain’s senior economic advisor, has been advising McCain, I believe, since the inception of his campaign. [painting Barack Obama as out of touch and elitist gives new meaning to hypocrisy and hubris].
However not all voters are in the dark. After touting a record for supporting the troops McCain found himself in an awkward situation with a Viet Nam veteran who took umbrage at McCain’s audacious dishonesty. With documented evidence in hand the vet effectively disassembled McCain’s entire speech. I do not know how many times McCain has purported to have done one thing when his record and other evidence clearly illustrate the opposite, however, it’s well-documented that was not his first time. Voters need to know this.
The upside is ultimately the media’s double standards along with McCain’s unpresidential and unstatesman-like conduct, ever-changing positions, conflicting statements will become wider known thru YouTube and alternative sources of information that will suffice, at least for now, for a media in absentia.
Posted 08/14/2008 08:50pm with
Eleven post, and only trashed Obama.
I wonder how many people know that McCain draw Social Securtity probabley more than some worker get a month.
Was it McCain that said in 1999 that if elected he would do everything he could to destroy the teachers union? I kind of remember this.