Poll: McCain Leads Comfortably in Arizona
A new poll of 1,000 Arizona voters indicates The Grand Canyon State may be less in play than previous polls have shown, reports the Phoenix-area East Valley Tribune. According to the poll, conducted by the Raleigh, N.C.-based Public Policy Polling, Sen. John McCain holds a 12-point lead over his opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, in McCain’s home state of Arizona. The survey founded McCain is favored by 52 percent of Arizonans, compared with 40 percent for Obama. Eight percent of respondents were undecided. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. From the Tribune:
The survey shows that overall, McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 40 percent. Furthermore, the Republican senator draws support from a wide array of demographic groups, including segments that typically lean Democratic.
For example, among Hispanic voters, McCain trails Obama 48 percent to 40 percent, a difference of 8 percentage points. McCain typically trails Obama by 20 to 25 percentage points among Hispanic voters in other states.
The best indication that McCain has few worries in Arizona is that he's polling higher than 50 percent overall, [PPP Spokesman Tom] Jensen said.
"Even if all the undecideds break for your opponent, you're obviously still in good shape," he said.
Unless something unexpected happens before November, Arizona will fall on McCain's side of the ledger, Jensen said.
Two recent polls have suggested a much closer race in Arizona. A Zogby online poll last month found Obama held a three-point lead over McCain, while a Behavior Research Center survey of Maricopa County residents showed McCain’s 15-point lead in Arizona’s largest county had shrunk to just five points in one month. To note, many experts question the validity of online polls. The Arizona Republic conducted an analysis of the two candidates’ June fund-raising numbers and reported Obama outraised McCain in the state month, and McCain holds a slim lead over Obama in contributions from Arizonans for this year. Whether Arizona really shapes up into a battleground for the fall remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain: the overall picture indicates McCain would be wise to not take anything for granted.
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